In recent months, the New World screwworm has dominated headlines in cattle markets, painted as a looming biological threat capable of devastating herds. But let’s look deeper: is this truly about animal health, or is it a well-timed scare tactic designed to influence market behavior?
The parasite is real—but the narrative surrounding it often feels amplified at critical points in the cattle cycle. When feeder supplies are already tight, fear-driven messaging about disease risks can justify aggressive policy moves, such as halting Mexican feeder imports. That single action constrains supply, drives up domestic feeder prices, and reshapes regional feeding dynamics. For traders, this isn’t just biology—it’s economics. Every headline that screams “catastrophe” injects uncertainty into the market, and uncertainty is the fuel for volatility.
Here’s the reality: the screwworm issue has been contained before, and eradication protocols exist. Yet the timing of these alerts—coinciding with seasonal placement lows and packer margin shifts—suggests more than coincidence. It creates a psychological premium, pushing futures higher and rewarding those positioned for scarcity. In short, the screwworm story isn’t just about worms—it’s about leverage. Recognizing this dynamic is critical for predictive traders who understand that markets move on perception as much as fundamentals.
Submitted by: Ari H. “The Jew that Knew”
Plains People Trading & Consulting 
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