Plains People Trading & Consulting

Predictive Markets. Proactive Margins: from Cattle Feeding to Sports betting

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Predictive Market Director:

Ari H.

“The Jew that Knew”

Ari isn’t just a trader—he’s a phenomenon. Born with an instinct for probabilities and a mind wired for strategy, Ari turned sports betting into an art form and commodities trading into a science. Expelled from business school for playing too close to the edge? He calls it a badge of honor—a reminder that rules are for people who can’t beat the game.

Senior Analyst & Trader

Brando W.

“25-Year-Old Trading Visionary”

At just 25 years old, Brando has shattered expectations in the world of options trading and predictive market strategy. Renowned for her ability to forecast volatility and price movements with surgical precision, Brando has mastered the art of transforming risk into opportunity. Her approach is fearless, data-driven, and unapologetically focused on winning.

Brando’s expertise lies in predictive trading, where she harnesses advanced analytics, behavioral modeling, and real-time market intelligence to anticipate trends before they emerge. Beyond the trading floor, Brando designs hedging frameworks for agriculture, protecting feedlots and agribusinesses from market shocks while unlocking new profit streams.

Options Desk Manager:

Seraphina Gold

“The Queen of Odds”

Seraphina Gold doesn’t play the market—she bends it to her will. At 30, she’s already a legend in the options game, turning volatility into her personal playground. While others panic over price swings, Seraphina thrives on chaos, stacking wins like chips at a poker table. Her obsession? Sports betting and options trading—because why settle for one arena when you can dominate both?

Predictive Market Consultant

Moses

“The Spread King”

Moses didn’t just grow up in the Bronx—he grew up hustling odds. At 45, he’s the guy Wall Street whispers about when cattle spreads start moving. While most traders stick to vanilla strategies, Moses thrives in the complex world of options, cattle crush spreads, and credit default swaps. He’s not here to play safe—he’s here to dominate.

Every trade is a calculated ambush. He sees risk where others see chaos and turns it into profit with surgical precision. Moses doesn’t follow the market; he writes the playbook. From hedging feedyard margins to structuring swaps that make banks sweat, his game is pure strategy and swagger. If you’re looking for boring, look elsewhere. If you want to learn how the best turn volatility into victory, Moses is your guy.

Feeder Cattle Outlook: Key Risks Ahead of Dec 19 COF Report

Options Desk Manager:

Seraphina Gold

“The Queen of Odds”

Key Expectations for upcoming COF Report 12.19.25

  1. Placements Likely Higher Year-over-Year
    • Recent feed cost trends (corn softening) and mild weather have encouraged early placements.
    • Many analysts anticipate placements up 3–6% YoY, which could add bearish weight to feeder futures.
  2. On-Feed Inventory Slightly Above Last Year
    • November typically sees a seasonal uptick in on-feed numbers.
    • If inventory comes in above expectations, it reinforces supply pressure into Q1.
  3. Marketings Could Be Flat or Slightly Lower
    • Slower packer demand and holiday scheduling often temper marketing pace.
    • If marketing is weaker than expected, it adds to the backlog narrative.

Implications for Price Action

  • Feeder Futures: Already showing weakness across deferred months; a bearish COF report could accelerate downside toward technical supports (Jan near 336–334, Mar near 331–332).
  • Live Cattle: May hold better if beef demand remains firm, but heavy placements will weigh on deferred contracts.
  • Basis: Cash strength vs futures weakness could persist short-term, but if report confirms heavy placements, cash may soften post-holidays.

My Bias: Slightly bearish heading into the report, given:

  • Futures closed near lows Friday.
  • Heavy open interest in Jan/Mar suggests traders are bracing for negative surprises.
  • Seasonal pattern favors higher placements in November.

Market Setup

  • Cash Market/Feeder Index: Strong at 346.770, widening basis vs futures.
  • Futures: Broad weakness Friday; Jan ’26 closed 339.100 (-4.300) near support 339.000.
  • Liquidity: Concentrated in Jan & Mar; heavy open interest suggests volatility risk.

COF Expectations

  • Placements: Likely up 3–6% YoY (lower feed costs, mild weather).
  • On-Feed Inventory: Slightly above last year.
  • Marketings: Flat to slightly lower (holiday scheduling).

Scenario Table

ScenarioCOF OutcomePrice Impact (Jan ’26)
BullishPlacements flat/downBounce toward 344–346
NeutralPlacements +2–3%Range 339–342
BearishPlacements +5% or moreBreak 339 → t

Price Risk Zones

  • Jan ’26 (GFF26):
    • Support: 339.000 → 336.500 → 334.500
    • Resistance: 342.000 → 344.925
  • Mar ’26 (GFH26):
    • Support: 333.925 → 331.000
    • Resistance: 337.000 → 339.175

Actionable Takeaways

  • Protective puts/collars recommended for long feeders.
  • Watch early-week cash bids and spread action for directional clues.
  • Expect volatility spike post-report if placements surprise higher
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